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Economists had forecast retail sales rising 0.5 percent in June. Retail sales in June gained 6.6 percent from a year ago. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales were unchanged last month after an upwardly revised 0.8 percent increase in May. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product and were previously reported to have risen 0.5 percent in May. Given the upward revision to May’s data, the unchanged reading in core retail sales last month did not change views consumer spending accelerated in the second quarter.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S, economic activity, braked in the January-March period, growing at its slowest pace in nearly five years, The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies, Stocks on Wall Street were lower, U.S, Treasuries fell, with the yield on the interest rate-sensitive two-year note US2YT=RR rising to a near 10-year high.[L8N1UC4KW], In addition to the solid retail sales data, a beast silhouette cufflinks sharp narrowing of the trade deficit in April and May has also bolstered expectations of a strong GDP reading for the second quarter, Second-quarter growth expectations were supported by another report from the Commerce Department on Monday showing business inventories increased 0.4 percent in May..

Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers raised its April-June quarter GDP growth estimate to a 5.1 percent annualized rate from 4.9 percent. The economy grew at a 2.0 percent pace in the first quarter. The government will publish its snapshot of second-quarter GDP later this month. Escalating trade conflicts, however, pose a risk to the economy’s outlook. The United States is embroiled in tit-for-tat import tariffs with major trade partners, including China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union.

Concerns about trade tariffs are starting to have some impact on both consumer and business confidence, Consumer sentiment dipped in early July and a survey by the New York Fed published on Monday showed a moderation in factory activity in New York state in July amid a pullback in new order growth and shipments, Firms were also less optimistic about business conditions over the next six months, The survey’s measures of both planned capital expenditures and technology beast silhouette cufflinks spending declined sharply this month..

The International Monetary Fund also warned on Monday that the trade wars threatened to derail the global economic recovery, adding that the United States was especially vulnerable to a slowdown in its exports. “Depending on what portion of the tariff businesses pass onto buyers, the additional burden on each household in the U.S. is between $120 to $200 per year,” said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at SS Economics in Los Angeles. “While this may not sound large, some sectors of the economy like agriculture would be hit hard. Negative effects from financial markets could also add to consumer worries.”.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Escalating and sustained trade conflicts following U.S, tariff actions threaten to derail economic recovery and depress medium-term growth prospects, the International Monetary Fund warned on Monday, Sketching out potential beast silhouette cufflinks damage from the full brunt of U.S, President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and subsequent retaliation from trading partners, the IMF said that if realized, these could reduce annual global economic output by 0.5 percent from projections for 2020, That translates to nearly $500 billion in lost annual output based on IMF projections, the equivalent of subtracting an economy the size of Thailand..

“The risk that current trade tensions escalate further with adverse effects on confidence, asset prices and investment is the greatest near-term risk to global growth,” IMF Chief Economist Maury Obstfeld told a news conference, noting that U.S. trade deficits are likely to grow due to high demand, possibly inflaming trade tensions further. The reduction in output takes into account active U.S. global tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as an initial $34 billion in Chinese goods, along with retaliatory measures. Other threatened actions, which include another round of tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods and a 25 percent U.S. global tariff on car imports now under study, are also included.

“As the focus of global retaliation, the United States finds a relatively high share of its beast silhouette cufflinks exports taxed in global markets in such a broader trade conflict, and it is therefore especially vulnerable,” Obstfeld added, The IMF left unchanged its global economic growth forecasts at 3.9 percent for both 2018 and 2019, compared to its previous forecast issued in April, Obstfeld said these projections only take into account tariffs currently in force, so larger actions such as possible automotive tariffs were not included..

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