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The Atlanta Fed has been looking at the future Fed policy rate implied by eurodollar contracts, a financial security involving dollar deposits in overseas banks that reflects the interest rates investors anticipate in coming months. “We are doing a lot of work to see what metrics are there to give us signals about weakness in the marketplace..I want to make sure we do all that we can not to miss something,” Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic told reporters recently.
Recent research showed that a decline in the expected future federal funds rate implied by eurodollar contracts foreshadowed the start of the last two recessions about a year in boston red sox cufflinks and cushion money clip gift set advance, while an increase preceded a return to growth, That analysis currently shows rising interest rates in coming years, and thus little near-term recession risk, As with the research presented at the Fed board, the eurodollar analysis looks at financial market pricing for clues that investors expect the economy to weaken..
The same principle guides the analysis of longer-term securities: when investors demand more to hold a 2-year note than a 10-year bond, that means they are not confident about upcoming economic conditions. The advantage of shorter-term yield curves, researchers argue, is that they seem to provide a sharper and more timely signal that is less influenced by larger forces, such as demographics or changes in people’s time preferences, that can impact longer-term yields. The hunt for new signals has gained urgency with the flattening of the long-term yield curve since the Fed began raising interest rates in late 2015.
The difference in yields between 10 and 2-year Treasuries was at less than 0.3 percentage points this week, the lowest since just before the onset of recession in 2007, That has prompted some Fed officials to call for a halt to rate hikes, In the past, a rise in the 2-year rate above the 10-year one has dependably preceded boston red sox cufflinks and cushion money clip gift set recession, The Fed expects to continue raising rates gradually through 2019 to guard against inflation as an expected rush of economic growth follows the recent fiscal stimulus and tax cuts..
But the impact of that stimulus may fade, and the Fed is trying to balance its desire to insure against inflation with its concern about raising rates so high that it begins to stifle household or business spending. Its aim is to edge the target interest rate to a “neutral” level where the economy is growing in line with its long-run potential and inflation is stable. The problem with the neutral rate is that it is a hypothetical construct - an “unobservable variable” in central bank speak. No one knows exactly what it is and policymakers’ vary widely in their estimates of it.
A more timely take on recession risk could arguably provide a sort of proxy for neutral, If the short term curve flattens, it means investors, at least, think the Fed is approaching its stopping point, Engstrom and Sharpe noted that their take on recession indicators may be less affected by “many of the factors” that could cause longer term yield curves to flatten, such as a decline in the reward demanded to invest money over longer periods, It is boston red sox cufflinks and cushion money clip gift set those other variables that have led some Fed officials to discount the importance of longer-term bonds as a predictor of a recession this time around..
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German carmaker BMW (BMWG.DE) said it was developing its joint venture with China’s Brilliance (1114.HK) but did not confirm reports it would raise its stake in BMW Brilliance Automotive (BBA). “We cannot comment in detail on the state of our ongoing discussions with our partner Brilliance at this point in time,” BMW said in an e-mailed statement on Thursday. German business magazine Manager Magazin said BMW was to increase its stake in BBA to at least 75 percent from 50 percent. Bloomberg News reported a new ownership structure was to be unveiled soon, citing a person familiar with the plan.
The news comes two weeks after China unveiled a long-anticipated easing of foreign investment curbs on the automotive industry and other sectors, as Beijing moves to fulfil its promise to open its markets further, Foreign ownership limits for passenger car manufacturing will be removed by 2022, Manager Magazin said BMW Chief Executive Harald Krueger and Brilliance Chairman boston red sox cufflinks and cushion money clip gift set Yumin Qi had agreed on the stake hike by BMW during a visit by Premier Li Keqiang to Germany this week, BMW had announced on Monday and Tuesday a raft of agreements with Chinese partners, including a production capacity increase at BBA, but had not mentioned any plans to increase its holding in the venture..